(Originally posted on WordPress in September 2017)
This week's edition of the Monster Energy Nascar Cup Series Playoffs is brought to you by the letter "R" for "rebound."
Just when it appeared that points leader Martin Truex Jr.'s position in the championship standings may have been in jeopardy following a multi-car crash on the final lap of stage two, his day and standing atop the points would ultimately be saved by a fifth place finish that could be described as nothing less than phenomenal. And while his day would ultimately end four positions shy of capturing the checkered flag, his incredible comeback from potential disaster would be enough to put his closest competitors on notice that he and his team would "not" be counted out of the picture.
Equally impressive in terms of rebound this past week was race winner Kyle Busch. Coming off a disappointing 15th place finish in the post-season opener at Chicagoland and needing to make up some ground in his quest for a second Cup Series title, the Rowdy One would demonstrate incredible finesse in avoiding the stage two melee that ended the hopes of several fellow contenders, en route to winning said stage and ultimately, the race itself, when all was said and done.
While race winners Truex and Busch have now secured their advancement into the second playoff round, two other drivers can now breathe easy as their transfers are guaranteed based on their accumulated stage points: Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski. Eight spots now remain to be filled at the completion of this weekend's Apache Warrior 400 at Dover International Speedway, spelling the elimination of four hopefuls when the checkered flag falls on the final lap. Bearing the pressure of elimination in mind, the contenders now standing in greatest need of the ultimate rebound are Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Austin Dillon (tied with 2044 points), Ryan Newman (sitting in 14th with 2043 points), Kurt Busch (13th with 2027 points) and Kasey Kahne (16th with 2023 points). Bottom line, it's a "win or go home" scenario--the ultimate "rebound." A quick look at the finishing stats for each of the four drivers in question would give the best chance, albeit a most unlikely possibility, to Kahne whose average Dover finish of 8.6 over a total of five races since 2015 is the highest among the bottom four (source: DriverAverages.com).
FINAL THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
As the first round of eliminations is looming on the horizon and the field of 16 contenders will soon narrow to 12, the championship picture for 2017 is slowly coming into focus. What if any surprises will be in store for the remaining competitors in the picture? Will a longshot driver sneak through with a desperately needed win and advance to Round Two, mathematically ending the chances for a more likely favorite? Or will Sunday's scenario remain consistent with all that has transpired during the season to date? Will we see more aggressive driving by those who know the outcome could be their last shot at advancement? Will the four drivers currently locked into the picture opt to race more conservatively, knowing that they are securely positioned to continue into the next three-race phase? What about the mid-level competitors? And what should we expect to see from those drivers going for a first shot at the glory versus those with several years of playoff experience? What effect will the sheer determination of seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson to shoot for an unprecedented eighth title have upon the post-season outcome when all is said and done? Will a victory from a non-contender sneak in and shake things up? Or will we see a long-anticipated first time win from a contender of the caliber of Chase Elliott, thus propelling him into the next round of competition?
Legitimate questions. Numerous possibilities. Sunday at Dover will mark the first step in search of the answers.
Stay tuned. Things are about to get real.
–Lisa Ballantyne, Totally Nascar Talk
All views herein are my own. Readers’ comments are always welcome.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
The Gloves Are Off, The Playoffs Are On: First Stop--Chicagoland
(Originally posted on WordPress, September 2017)
This week's edition of the Monster Energy Nascar Cup Series playoffs is brought to you by the letter "E" for "encumbered."
Just when it appeared that Chase Elliott's stage two win and ultimate runner-up finish at Chicagoland Speedway were going to propel him one step closer to advancement in the championship standings, "BOOM!" The dreaded removal of tape from the spoiler of his #24 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet was caught on camera, and down fell the golden hammer. The result? His second-place finish was declared encumbered, costing him the playoff point that he earned for winning stage two, along with hefty fines and suspensions levied on both his car chief and crew chief, and a subsequent relegation to eight place in the postseason point standings. Looking ahead to the coming weekend at Loudon, he and the team now have some serious ground to make up if his hopes for advancement to the next stage are to remain intact. Moral of the story? The rules are the rules, and the watchful eyes of Nascar "will" catch and deal with cheating in any form.
Just call it valuable experience. Which brings to mind the question: How much should a driver be held responsible for poor and irresponsible decision-making on the part of his or her crew? After all, it could legitimately be argued that it was a crew member and not Chase himself who was ultimately responsible for putting that piece of tape on the spoiler--either prior to the start of the race (where it should have been promptly discovered during the pre-race inspection process) or during the course of a pit stop. I have personally sought the answer to this question many times in the past, but in the end that answer has always been the same: Behind every finish, be it successful or unsuccessful, lies a full team effort involving both crew members and drivers, with everyone sharing the responsibility for all decisions and subsequent actions duly affecting the outcome. Whether or not the drivers are consulted via in-race communication with regard to these actions, is yet to be proven, but Nascar, in all fairness, is ultimately faced with the responsibility of assuming that such "pit strategies" were indeed discussed and approved, and thus to act in accordance with such assumptions. Fair? That's questionable depending on the individual circumstances and conditions, but the bottom line is that the rules are the rules, and when they are broken, either with or without the knowledge of the drivers themselves, the violations must be dealt with, and in the aftermath of everything, all that a driver can do is simply chalk the disappointment up as a learning experience, and find within the negatives something positive that will be of benefit in future situations.
So just what effect will this unfortunate turn of events have upon the remaining two races before driver eliminations come into play? In all honesty, probably not very much. The sad fact of the matter is that cheating in some form or another has always been prevalent in the sport, and is not likely to go away simply because of the degree of severity with which Nascar has chosen to handle individual rule book violations. In the now famous words of Jimmie Johnson's crew chief Chad Knaus, who could arguably be nicknamed the King Of Rulebook Modifications, "It's our job to cheat. It's Nascar's job to catch us." And much as your writer hates to admit it, Mr. Knaus has a valid point. Teams are always looking for ways by which a driver stands to gain an advantage during the ultimate pursuit of a victory, and the practice is not likely to stop just because one team's "experimentation" for lack of a better word, has been discovered. Except, of course, when the "discovery" involves their particular team. To that end, one can ultimately hope that the next serious infraction to make news within the sport, will be one committed by another competitor, thus giving "the other guys" something to think about before making poor strategy decisions of their own in future races.
Lesson learned? We can only hope.
On to New Hampshire.
–Lisa Ballantyne, Totally Nascar Talk
All views herein are my own. Readers' comments are always welcome.
This week's edition of the Monster Energy Nascar Cup Series playoffs is brought to you by the letter "E" for "encumbered."
Just when it appeared that Chase Elliott's stage two win and ultimate runner-up finish at Chicagoland Speedway were going to propel him one step closer to advancement in the championship standings, "BOOM!" The dreaded removal of tape from the spoiler of his #24 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet was caught on camera, and down fell the golden hammer. The result? His second-place finish was declared encumbered, costing him the playoff point that he earned for winning stage two, along with hefty fines and suspensions levied on both his car chief and crew chief, and a subsequent relegation to eight place in the postseason point standings. Looking ahead to the coming weekend at Loudon, he and the team now have some serious ground to make up if his hopes for advancement to the next stage are to remain intact. Moral of the story? The rules are the rules, and the watchful eyes of Nascar "will" catch and deal with cheating in any form.
Just call it valuable experience. Which brings to mind the question: How much should a driver be held responsible for poor and irresponsible decision-making on the part of his or her crew? After all, it could legitimately be argued that it was a crew member and not Chase himself who was ultimately responsible for putting that piece of tape on the spoiler--either prior to the start of the race (where it should have been promptly discovered during the pre-race inspection process) or during the course of a pit stop. I have personally sought the answer to this question many times in the past, but in the end that answer has always been the same: Behind every finish, be it successful or unsuccessful, lies a full team effort involving both crew members and drivers, with everyone sharing the responsibility for all decisions and subsequent actions duly affecting the outcome. Whether or not the drivers are consulted via in-race communication with regard to these actions, is yet to be proven, but Nascar, in all fairness, is ultimately faced with the responsibility of assuming that such "pit strategies" were indeed discussed and approved, and thus to act in accordance with such assumptions. Fair? That's questionable depending on the individual circumstances and conditions, but the bottom line is that the rules are the rules, and when they are broken, either with or without the knowledge of the drivers themselves, the violations must be dealt with, and in the aftermath of everything, all that a driver can do is simply chalk the disappointment up as a learning experience, and find within the negatives something positive that will be of benefit in future situations.
So just what effect will this unfortunate turn of events have upon the remaining two races before driver eliminations come into play? In all honesty, probably not very much. The sad fact of the matter is that cheating in some form or another has always been prevalent in the sport, and is not likely to go away simply because of the degree of severity with which Nascar has chosen to handle individual rule book violations. In the now famous words of Jimmie Johnson's crew chief Chad Knaus, who could arguably be nicknamed the King Of Rulebook Modifications, "It's our job to cheat. It's Nascar's job to catch us." And much as your writer hates to admit it, Mr. Knaus has a valid point. Teams are always looking for ways by which a driver stands to gain an advantage during the ultimate pursuit of a victory, and the practice is not likely to stop just because one team's "experimentation" for lack of a better word, has been discovered. Except, of course, when the "discovery" involves their particular team. To that end, one can ultimately hope that the next serious infraction to make news within the sport, will be one committed by another competitor, thus giving "the other guys" something to think about before making poor strategy decisions of their own in future races.
Lesson learned? We can only hope.
On to New Hampshire.
–Lisa Ballantyne, Totally Nascar Talk
All views herein are my own. Readers' comments are always welcome.
The Gloves Are Off, The Playoffs Are On: 2017 Postseason Preview
(Originally posted on WordPress, September 2017)
It's hard to believe, but another "regular" season of Nascar racing is in the history books, and the post-season playoffs for determining year's championship are about to get underway. As the points are reset to reflect the number of victories and bonus points from the previous weeks of competition (and thus, the standings with which each eligible driver enters the next phase of competition), here is a look at how things stack up, how each driver got there and this writer's predictions for what could be in store for 2017's final races.
Getting There Is Half The Fun: How It All Began
In 16th position with 2003 points: Jamie McMurray (Chip Ganassi Racing) enters the postseason with two top five finishes, 13 top tens, and three playoff points in 26 starts.
In 15th position with 2005 points: Matt Kenseth (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with seven top five finishes, 12 top tens, three stage wins and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 14th position with 2005 points: Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, four top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 13th position with 2005 points: Kasey Kahne (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, four top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 12th position with 2005 points: Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing) enters the postseason with one win, five top five finishes, 13 top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 11th position with 2005 points: Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing) enters the postseason with one win, six top five finishes, 11 top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 10th position with 2006 points: Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with six top five finishes, 14 top tens, two stage wins and six playoff points in 26 starts.
In 9th position with 2008 points: Ryan Blaney (Wood Brothers Racing) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, nine top tens, three stage wins and eight playoff points in 26 starts.
In 8th position with 2010 points: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Roush-Fenway Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, four top five finishes, seven top tens, and 10 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 7th position with 2013 points: Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 11 top five finishes, 15 top tens, two stage wins and 13 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 6th position with 2015 points: Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) enters the postseason with one win, eight top five finishes, 16 top tens, three stage wins and 15 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 5th position with 2017 points: Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with three wins, three top five finishes, eight top tens, one stage win and 17 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 4th position with 2019 points: Brad Keselowski (Penske Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 11 top five finishes, 14 top 10 finishes, four stage wins and 19 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 3rd position with 2029 points: Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 10 top five finishes, 16 top 10 finishes, 11 stage wins and 29 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 2nd position with 2033 points: Kyle Larson (Chip Ganassi Racing) enters the postseason with four wins, 11 top five finishes, 15 top ten finishes, three stage wins and 33 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 1st position with 2053 points: Martin Truex Jr. (Furniture Row Racing) enters the postseason with four wins, 10 top five finishes, 17 top ten finishes, 18 stage wins and 53 playoff points in 26 starts.
The Overall Picture: How Important Is A Win?
Never has the age-old adage that "winning isn't everything; it's the only thing" held more truth than we have seen over the last couple of seasons. For years, fans have been screaming for victories to carry more weight toward championship eligibility, and it appears that Nascar's Powers That Be have finally listened to the majority. And in turn, it appears that the drivers are now more motivated than ever to do anything it takes to assure themselves of being first to reach the checkered flag on the final lap, as the simple "win and you're in" mentality now guarantees drivers an automatic transfer into the playoffs. And whether it be the result of well-calculated strategy or simply a little good luck in the end (take for instance, Kurt Busch's Daytona 500 victory, secured by leading the only lap that mattered), the winning driver is the winning driver, and that's the bottom line.
Entering Chicagoland: Picks And Pans
Looking objectively at the most recent loop data for Chicagoland Speedway*, first glance gives a bit of advantage to the two sophomore drivers making the show: Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney with average finishes of 3.0 and 4.0 respectively. However, one must bear in mind that these impressive numbers merely reflect having competed in a single race at the venue, in comparison with the more experienced veteran drivers in the field. A closer examination of the full picture would give both Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski a solid advantage based on past history, with former champions Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth following closely behind. Your writer's bottom line for this weekend, however, having taken into consideration both "numbers" and "a little luck," remains in line with the two competitors who have shown the greatest amount of consistency to date: Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson, with further impressive finishes predicted for Jimmie Johnson (determination is the name of the game and he is hungry for title #8), Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick. Having made the show by virtue of points despite a bizarre accident involving an ambulance at Richmond, and with his future in the sport in serious question at this point in time, my "determined to win" vote goes to a former series champion with a little something to prove: Matt Kenseth, with a similar pick based on the same factor going to Kasey Kahne who despite making the field based on a single victory, now finds himself in search of a ride for 2018.
With respect to those who, despite making the final cut, could use some good mojo this weekend, my first vote goes to Kurt Busch. Driver #41 secured his spot when he won the season-opening Daytona 500 by virtue of leading only a single lap, but seemed to disappear from the spotlight for much of the remainder of the regular season. Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., all first-time winners in 2017, have youth and a new sense of confidence on their side, which should make their respective first appearances in the sport's postseason interesting to watch. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray, all past playoff competitors, should not be counted out at this point. Despite having entered the regular season finale coming off an encumbered victory at Darlington Raceway, Denny Hamlin knows from experience what it takes to be a contender; Ryan Newman entered the 2017 season as 2016's biggest postseason surprise, and Jamie McMurray, who many may consider a dark horse, is making his third playoff appearance--and almost everyone is familiar with the saying "Third time's a charm."
Final Thought
As Nascar's 2017 playoff field is now set in stone, the question on every fan's mind is, Who will hoist the ultimate hardware when the checkers fall at Homestead in November? Will we see a newcomer bring home a first title, a repeat winner from a previous season, a surprise longshot, or a record-breaking eighth title for the reigning champion? While it is too early to tell at this point in time, one thing is for certain: the final 10 races on the schedule promise to be filled with lots of action and excitement for drivers and fans alike.
Who is ready for Chicagoland?
Good luck to all the drivers and teams! Let the thrills begin!
–Lisa Ballantyne, Totally Nascar Talk
All views herein are my own. Readers' comments are always welcome.
*Loop Data Source: MRN
It's hard to believe, but another "regular" season of Nascar racing is in the history books, and the post-season playoffs for determining year's championship are about to get underway. As the points are reset to reflect the number of victories and bonus points from the previous weeks of competition (and thus, the standings with which each eligible driver enters the next phase of competition), here is a look at how things stack up, how each driver got there and this writer's predictions for what could be in store for 2017's final races.
Getting There Is Half The Fun: How It All Began
In 16th position with 2003 points: Jamie McMurray (Chip Ganassi Racing) enters the postseason with two top five finishes, 13 top tens, and three playoff points in 26 starts.
In 15th position with 2005 points: Matt Kenseth (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with seven top five finishes, 12 top tens, three stage wins and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 14th position with 2005 points: Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, four top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 13th position with 2005 points: Kasey Kahne (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, four top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 12th position with 2005 points: Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing) enters the postseason with one win, five top five finishes, 13 top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 11th position with 2005 points: Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing) enters the postseason with one win, six top five finishes, 11 top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 10th position with 2006 points: Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with six top five finishes, 14 top tens, two stage wins and six playoff points in 26 starts.
In 9th position with 2008 points: Ryan Blaney (Wood Brothers Racing) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, nine top tens, three stage wins and eight playoff points in 26 starts.
In 8th position with 2010 points: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Roush-Fenway Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, four top five finishes, seven top tens, and 10 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 7th position with 2013 points: Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 11 top five finishes, 15 top tens, two stage wins and 13 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 6th position with 2015 points: Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) enters the postseason with one win, eight top five finishes, 16 top tens, three stage wins and 15 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 5th position with 2017 points: Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with three wins, three top five finishes, eight top tens, one stage win and 17 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 4th position with 2019 points: Brad Keselowski (Penske Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 11 top five finishes, 14 top 10 finishes, four stage wins and 19 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 3rd position with 2029 points: Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 10 top five finishes, 16 top 10 finishes, 11 stage wins and 29 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 2nd position with 2033 points: Kyle Larson (Chip Ganassi Racing) enters the postseason with four wins, 11 top five finishes, 15 top ten finishes, three stage wins and 33 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 1st position with 2053 points: Martin Truex Jr. (Furniture Row Racing) enters the postseason with four wins, 10 top five finishes, 17 top ten finishes, 18 stage wins and 53 playoff points in 26 starts.
The Overall Picture: How Important Is A Win?
Never has the age-old adage that "winning isn't everything; it's the only thing" held more truth than we have seen over the last couple of seasons. For years, fans have been screaming for victories to carry more weight toward championship eligibility, and it appears that Nascar's Powers That Be have finally listened to the majority. And in turn, it appears that the drivers are now more motivated than ever to do anything it takes to assure themselves of being first to reach the checkered flag on the final lap, as the simple "win and you're in" mentality now guarantees drivers an automatic transfer into the playoffs. And whether it be the result of well-calculated strategy or simply a little good luck in the end (take for instance, Kurt Busch's Daytona 500 victory, secured by leading the only lap that mattered), the winning driver is the winning driver, and that's the bottom line.
Entering Chicagoland: Picks And Pans
Looking objectively at the most recent loop data for Chicagoland Speedway*, first glance gives a bit of advantage to the two sophomore drivers making the show: Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney with average finishes of 3.0 and 4.0 respectively. However, one must bear in mind that these impressive numbers merely reflect having competed in a single race at the venue, in comparison with the more experienced veteran drivers in the field. A closer examination of the full picture would give both Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski a solid advantage based on past history, with former champions Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth following closely behind. Your writer's bottom line for this weekend, however, having taken into consideration both "numbers" and "a little luck," remains in line with the two competitors who have shown the greatest amount of consistency to date: Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson, with further impressive finishes predicted for Jimmie Johnson (determination is the name of the game and he is hungry for title #8), Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick. Having made the show by virtue of points despite a bizarre accident involving an ambulance at Richmond, and with his future in the sport in serious question at this point in time, my "determined to win" vote goes to a former series champion with a little something to prove: Matt Kenseth, with a similar pick based on the same factor going to Kasey Kahne who despite making the field based on a single victory, now finds himself in search of a ride for 2018.
With respect to those who, despite making the final cut, could use some good mojo this weekend, my first vote goes to Kurt Busch. Driver #41 secured his spot when he won the season-opening Daytona 500 by virtue of leading only a single lap, but seemed to disappear from the spotlight for much of the remainder of the regular season. Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., all first-time winners in 2017, have youth and a new sense of confidence on their side, which should make their respective first appearances in the sport's postseason interesting to watch. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray, all past playoff competitors, should not be counted out at this point. Despite having entered the regular season finale coming off an encumbered victory at Darlington Raceway, Denny Hamlin knows from experience what it takes to be a contender; Ryan Newman entered the 2017 season as 2016's biggest postseason surprise, and Jamie McMurray, who many may consider a dark horse, is making his third playoff appearance--and almost everyone is familiar with the saying "Third time's a charm."
Final Thought
As Nascar's 2017 playoff field is now set in stone, the question on every fan's mind is, Who will hoist the ultimate hardware when the checkers fall at Homestead in November? Will we see a newcomer bring home a first title, a repeat winner from a previous season, a surprise longshot, or a record-breaking eighth title for the reigning champion? While it is too early to tell at this point in time, one thing is for certain: the final 10 races on the schedule promise to be filled with lots of action and excitement for drivers and fans alike.
Who is ready for Chicagoland?
Good luck to all the drivers and teams! Let the thrills begin!
–Lisa Ballantyne, Totally Nascar Talk
All views herein are my own. Readers' comments are always welcome.
*Loop Data Source: MRN
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