(Originally posted on WordPress, September 2017)
It's hard to believe, but another "regular" season of Nascar racing is in the history books, and the post-season playoffs for determining year's championship are about to get underway. As the points are reset to reflect the number of victories and bonus points from the previous weeks of competition (and thus, the standings with which each eligible driver enters the next phase of competition), here is a look at how things stack up, how each driver got there and this writer's predictions for what could be in store for 2017's final races.
Getting There Is Half The Fun: How It All Began
In 16th position with 2003 points: Jamie McMurray (Chip Ganassi Racing) enters the postseason with two top five finishes, 13 top tens, and three playoff points in 26 starts.
In 15th position with 2005 points: Matt Kenseth (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with seven top five finishes, 12 top tens, three stage wins and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 14th position with 2005 points: Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, four top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 13th position with 2005 points: Kasey Kahne (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, four top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 12th position with 2005 points: Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing) enters the postseason with one win, five top five finishes, 13 top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 11th position with 2005 points: Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing) enters the postseason with one win, six top five finishes, 11 top tens and five playoff points in 26 starts.
In 10th position with 2006 points: Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with six top five finishes, 14 top tens, two stage wins and six playoff points in 26 starts.
In 9th position with 2008 points: Ryan Blaney (Wood Brothers Racing) enters the postseason with one win, three top five finishes, nine top tens, three stage wins and eight playoff points in 26 starts.
In 8th position with 2010 points: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Roush-Fenway Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, four top five finishes, seven top tens, and 10 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 7th position with 2013 points: Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 11 top five finishes, 15 top tens, two stage wins and 13 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 6th position with 2015 points: Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) enters the postseason with one win, eight top five finishes, 16 top tens, three stage wins and 15 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 5th position with 2017 points: Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports) enters the postseason with three wins, three top five finishes, eight top tens, one stage win and 17 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 4th position with 2019 points: Brad Keselowski (Penske Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 11 top five finishes, 14 top 10 finishes, four stage wins and 19 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 3rd position with 2029 points: Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing) enters the postseason with two wins, 10 top five finishes, 16 top 10 finishes, 11 stage wins and 29 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 2nd position with 2033 points: Kyle Larson (Chip Ganassi Racing) enters the postseason with four wins, 11 top five finishes, 15 top ten finishes, three stage wins and 33 playoff points in 26 starts.
In 1st position with 2053 points: Martin Truex Jr. (Furniture Row Racing) enters the postseason with four wins, 10 top five finishes, 17 top ten finishes, 18 stage wins and 53 playoff points in 26 starts.
The Overall Picture: How Important Is A Win?
Never has the age-old adage that "winning isn't everything; it's the only thing" held more truth than we have seen over the last couple of seasons. For years, fans have been screaming for victories to carry more weight toward championship eligibility, and it appears that Nascar's Powers That Be have finally listened to the majority. And in turn, it appears that the drivers are now more motivated than ever to do anything it takes to assure themselves of being first to reach the checkered flag on the final lap, as the simple "win and you're in" mentality now guarantees drivers an automatic transfer into the playoffs. And whether it be the result of well-calculated strategy or simply a little good luck in the end (take for instance, Kurt Busch's Daytona 500 victory, secured by leading the only lap that mattered), the winning driver is the winning driver, and that's the bottom line.
Entering Chicagoland: Picks And Pans
Looking objectively at the most recent loop data for Chicagoland Speedway*, first glance gives a bit of advantage to the two sophomore drivers making the show: Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney with average finishes of 3.0 and 4.0 respectively. However, one must bear in mind that these impressive numbers merely reflect having competed in a single race at the venue, in comparison with the more experienced veteran drivers in the field. A closer examination of the full picture would give both Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski a solid advantage based on past history, with former champions Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth following closely behind. Your writer's bottom line for this weekend, however, having taken into consideration both "numbers" and "a little luck," remains in line with the two competitors who have shown the greatest amount of consistency to date: Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson, with further impressive finishes predicted for Jimmie Johnson (determination is the name of the game and he is hungry for title #8), Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick. Having made the show by virtue of points despite a bizarre accident involving an ambulance at Richmond, and with his future in the sport in serious question at this point in time, my "determined to win" vote goes to a former series champion with a little something to prove: Matt Kenseth, with a similar pick based on the same factor going to Kasey Kahne who despite making the field based on a single victory, now finds himself in search of a ride for 2018.
With respect to those who, despite making the final cut, could use some good mojo this weekend, my first vote goes to Kurt Busch. Driver #41 secured his spot when he won the season-opening Daytona 500 by virtue of leading only a single lap, but seemed to disappear from the spotlight for much of the remainder of the regular season. Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., all first-time winners in 2017, have youth and a new sense of confidence on their side, which should make their respective first appearances in the sport's postseason interesting to watch. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray, all past playoff competitors, should not be counted out at this point. Despite having entered the regular season finale coming off an encumbered victory at Darlington Raceway, Denny Hamlin knows from experience what it takes to be a contender; Ryan Newman entered the 2017 season as 2016's biggest postseason surprise, and Jamie McMurray, who many may consider a dark horse, is making his third playoff appearance--and almost everyone is familiar with the saying "Third time's a charm."
Final Thought
As Nascar's 2017 playoff field is now set in stone, the question on every fan's mind is, Who will hoist the ultimate hardware when the checkers fall at Homestead in November? Will we see a newcomer bring home a first title, a repeat winner from a previous season, a surprise longshot, or a record-breaking eighth title for the reigning champion? While it is too early to tell at this point in time, one thing is for certain: the final 10 races on the schedule promise to be filled with lots of action and excitement for drivers and fans alike.
Who is ready for Chicagoland?
Good luck to all the drivers and teams! Let the thrills begin!
–Lisa Ballantyne, Totally Nascar Talk
All views herein are my own. Readers' comments are always welcome.
*Loop Data Source: MRN
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